Extrapolating Empirical Models of Satellite‐Observed Global Mean Sea Level to Estimate Future Sea Level Change

We estimate a quadratic model of climate-driven global mean sea level (GMSL) change based on the satellite altimetry record (1993–2020), including rigorous assessment errors in coefficients. then extrapolate this 30 years into future to 2050 and compute 90% confidence interval. find GMSL rise relative 2020 will be 16.4 cm higher, with an uncertainty range 11.3–21.4 cm. This prediction agrees within uncertainties IPCC SROCC AR6 projections. In addition, hindcast extrapolation prior 1993 well tide gauge over 2nd half 20th century. believe shows value short-term observationally driven extrapolations as additional tool for predicting change.